|
|
Post by neighborhoodsuperstar on Mar 8, 2020 19:21:07 GMT -5
As you all know by now, Winthrop beat Hampton in the Big South championship game. If Hampton would have won, they would have definitely been in the play-in game with a 16-18 record. It doesn't matter what conference you're in, you have to have a decent record to avoid the play-in games. Winthrop is 24-10...they'll likely be a 15 seed. If A&T finished with a similar record, we'd be a 15 seed too. Of Winthrop's 24 wins - 18 were Big South wins; 2 were non-DI wins; 4 were non-conference D-I wins (Elon, St Mary's, Hartford, SIU-Edwardsville). Elon is a bad team. Hartford is average. St Mary's is a solid team. SIUE is a bad team. With all of that being said......24-10 will likely equate to a 15 seed. The last time the MEAC had a 15 seed - Norfolk beat Missouri. When I look back at our year, we had a much more difficult schedule vs Winthrop. We had 15 OOC games (only 1 vs non-DI teams). Winthrop had 13 OOC games (2 games were vs non-DI). Even though they played Duke, our OOC opponents were collectively MORE DIFFICULT vs Winthrop's. Look for yourself: www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2448/north-carolina-at-aggieswww.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2737/winthrop-eaglesNow granted, we should not have lost to Jacksonville and Eastern Michigan. We also absolutely blew the Kent State game because Joyner didn't want to foul while up by 3 at the end of regulation. But winning those 2-3 games makes us 18-13/19-12 heading into the MEAC tournament. If we win the tournament, we would have been 21-13/22-12 and a likely 16 seed. At 19-15 (assuming an MEAC title), we'll be in the play-in. A few last points: 1) Joining the Big South doesn't give us a major leg up when it comes to getting a better seed. 2) Scheduling lighter in November/December can bolster our W-L record. We played UTEP, Utah St, Bradley, Kent, Wake and Illinois. When you are almost certain to have 6 losses going into conference play, and you go 12-4 in the MEAC......that's 10 losses. We can't afford 10 losses come seed time. If we're gonna travel less in the Big South, which supposedly will lead to less expenses, we theoretically shouldn't have to play this difficult a pre-conference schedule. 3) Irrespective of what people say as to how the MEAC compares to the Big South when it comes to basketball quality, when it comes to winning NCAA tournament games (not including play-in games).....MEAC 3 (Coppin, Hampton, Norfolk) vs Big South 1 (Winthrop) Just things to ponder moving forward. |
|
DECKS
Official BDF member
2008 Poster of the Year
Charter Member of the BDF
Posts: 10,392
|
Post by DECKS on Mar 8, 2020 20:17:40 GMT -5
Good points but if we were 24-10 there's a chance we'd still be a #16 seed....depending upon on the field. What you're leaving out is conference rpi which is where the BSC (26) separates a little from the MEAC (32). In strength of schedule the BSC ranks #27 and the MEAC #31. Winthrop #271 vs A&T #308. Obviously our sos is that low because of the conference we play in which according to rpi is the worst D1 conference in the country. Been that way for a minute.
A 24-10 record is more likely to get you a #15 seed from the Big South than the MEAC.
|
|
|
|
Post by neighborhoodsuperstar on Mar 8, 2020 21:09:26 GMT -5
I disagree. The MEAC's body of work is not compared to the Big South's body of work come seed time. It's who Winthrop played and beat vs who A&T played and beat. With the murderous OOC schedule we had, if we would have gotten more W's in November and December against the level of competition we played, we would have had a 15 seed.
Historically: In 2012, Norfolk got a 15 seed going 25-9; In 2014, NCCU got a 14 seed going 28-5; In 2001, Hampton got a 15 seed going 24-6; In 1997, Coppin got a 15 seed going 21-8; A&t got a 14 seed in 1988 going 26-2.
Based upon these numbers, irrespective of our conference, when when our champion has a "25-10" record, we historically avoid a play-in or 16 seed.
|
|
DECKS
Official BDF member
2008 Poster of the Year
Charter Member of the BDF
Posts: 10,392
|
Post by DECKS on Mar 8, 2020 21:29:59 GMT -5
Yeah, you're right about avoiding the #16 seed but the same record likely gets you a higher seed from the BSC. Big South Conference teams have been seeded as high as #11 while I think the MEAC's best has been #14.
|
|
|
|
Post by thefriscotxaggie on Mar 9, 2020 9:07:45 GMT -5
I think the highest seed HBCU in history was Southern as #13 when they pulled upset over Georgia Tech although that was back in mid 90's
|
|
|
|
Post by JeffAggieFan on Mar 9, 2020 9:20:40 GMT -5
Good Analysis. Each of those teams you mention in the MEAC had a signature win that year.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2020 9:29:18 GMT -5
I would not be surprised if Winthrop is on the 16 lines, if not the play-in game with everything you presented N$$. They have 0 quad 2 wins and the vast majority of their games were in Quad 4. Their saving grace right now is that they are ranked 146th in the .net rankings.
|
|
|
|
Post by durhamgsoaggie on Mar 9, 2020 10:08:36 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by ohsixrain on Mar 9, 2020 11:00:16 GMT -5
Well, they'd be looking at San Diego State, Seton Hall, Florida State and Kentucky for a first round match-up. Depending on this weekend Duke could potentially play it's way to a #2 seed maybe a #1 seed. My point...this year the parity in the NCAA is far and wide. If you are gonna shock the world, you will have to play outside of your minds as a team.
|
|
oleschoolaggie
Official BDF member
2009 Poster of the Year, 2009 Most Knowledgeable Poster
Posts: 24,158
|
Post by oleschoolaggie on Mar 9, 2020 13:02:55 GMT -5
honestly, who cares what seed the big south gets versus the meac? i mean, really? i guess the reward for some folk is how high the postseason representative gets seeded. yet i would argue that no matter what the seeding is, the result will very likely be the exact same which is an almost guaranteed first round loss.
to me, march madness seedings for hbcu's is literally "meaningless". its been 40 years now and not even one d1 hbcu has advanced beyond the 2nd round and only 4 "total" hbcu's in 40 years have managed to advance beyond the 1st round. that's a 1st round winning percentage of 5%!
it makes me "cringe" every time hbcu folk get into a tissy over march madness seedings. as if somehow our seeding is gonna make a difference. hail, hbcu's hardly win play-in games, much less 1st round games. and even if an hbcu is "fortunate" enuf to win a "rare" 1st round game, history says there's a "zero" chance of winning a 2nd round game. so what's the use?
i just don't get it. how long will it take for hbcu folk to finally come to terms with the fact that "barring a miracle", ain't no hbcu going nowhere in division 1 march madness. so why is there such a tissy over seedings? i will never understand that...
|
|
|
|
Post by Aggie Monster on Mar 9, 2020 13:15:34 GMT -5
honestly, who cares what seed the big south gets versus the meac? i mean, really? i guess the reward for some folk is how high the postseason representative gets seeded. yet i would argue that no matter what the seeding is, the result will very likely be the exact same which is an almost guaranteed first round loss. to me, march madness seedings for hbcu's is literally "meaningless". its been 40 years now and not even one d1 hbcu has advanced beyond the 2nd round and only 4 "total" hbcu's in 40 years have managed to advance beyond the 1st round. that's a 1st round winning percentage of 5%! it makes me "cringe" every time hbcu folk get into a tissy over march madness seedings. as if somehow our seeding is gonna make a difference. hail, hbcu's hardly win play-in games, much less 1st round games. and even if an hbcu is "fortunate" enuf to win a "rare" 1st round game, history says there's a "zero" chance of winning a 2nd round game. so what's the use? i just don't get it. how long will it take for hbcu folk to finally come to terms with the fact that "barring a miracle", ain't no hbcu going nowhere in division 1 march madness. so why is there such a tissy over seedings? i will never understand that... Because you get paid per round. 1 win gets you double the dollars, so those 1 win wonders got the conference and themselves another check. So yes, 15 vs 16 matters considering the percentages are zero for 1 vs 16. Yes, I know about the 2018 upset. Its the only one in the history of the tournament. And yes, the teams that play in the first 4 get 2 checks if they win that round. 1 for playing in the first 4 and another for playing in round one. |
|
trues
Official BDF member
Posts: 4,322
|
Post by trues on Mar 9, 2020 13:33:38 GMT -5
honestly, who cares what seed the big south gets versus the meac? i mean, really? i guess the reward for some folk is how high the postseason representative gets seeded. yet i would argue that no matter what the seeding is, the result will very likely be the exact same which is an almost guaranteed first round loss. to me, march madness seedings for hbcu's is literally "meaningless". its been 40 years now and not even one d1 hbcu has advanced beyond the 2nd round and only 4 "total" hbcu's in 40 years have managed to advance beyond the 1st round. that's a 1st round winning percentage of 5%! it makes me "cringe" every time hbcu folk get into a tissy over march madness seedings. as if somehow our seeding is gonna make a difference. hail, hbcu's hardly win play-in games, much less 1st round games. and even if an hbcu is "fortunate" enuf to win a "rare" 1st round game, history says there's a "zero" chance of winning a 2nd round game. so what's the use? i just don't get it. how long will it take for hbcu folk to finally come to terms with the fact that "barring a miracle", ain't no hbcu going nowhere in division 1 march madness. so why is there such a tissy over seedings? i will never understand that... Because you get paid per round. 1 win gets you double the dollars, so those 1 win wonders got the conference and themselves another check. So yes, 15 vs 16 matters considering the percentages are zero for 1 vs 16. Yes, I know about the 2018 upset. Its the only one in the history of the tournament. And yes, the teams that play in the first 4 get 2 checks if they win that round. 1 for playing in the first 4 and another for playing in round one. Plus if you can increase your chances of going deeper in the tournament the more exposure you receive for your institution. |
|
|
|
Post by Aggie Monster on Mar 9, 2020 13:37:23 GMT -5
So in other words. Playing in the first 4 aint so bad when you look at it financially. If you can pull an upset from there like I think VCU did one time then you banking, LOL.
|
|
|
|
Post by JeffAggieFan on Mar 9, 2020 13:42:25 GMT -5
I know the Big South tourney is moving to a neutral site but it would have been nice if we were the top seed and Club Corbett would have hosted the tourney. I think Winthrop got a big lift from the crowd in the game against Hampton.
|
|
oleschoolaggie
Official BDF member
2009 Poster of the Year, 2009 Most Knowledgeable Poster
Posts: 24,158
|
Post by oleschoolaggie on Mar 9, 2020 13:58:02 GMT -5
honestly, who cares what seed the big south gets versus the meac? i mean, really? i guess the reward for some folk is how high the postseason representative gets seeded. yet i would argue that no matter what the seeding is, the result will very likely be the exact same which is an almost guaranteed first round loss. to me, march madness seedings for hbcu's is literally "meaningless". its been 40 years now and not even one d1 hbcu has advanced beyond the 2nd round and only 4 "total" hbcu's in 40 years have managed to advance beyond the 1st round. that's a 1st round winning percentage of 5%! it makes me "cringe" every time hbcu folk get into a tissy over march madness seedings. as if somehow our seeding is gonna make a difference. hail, hbcu's hardly win play-in games, much less 1st round games. and even if an hbcu is "fortunate" enuf to win a "rare" 1st round game, history says there's a "zero" chance of winning a 2nd round game. so what's the use? i just don't get it. how long will it take for hbcu folk to finally come to terms with the fact that "barring a miracle", ain't no hbcu going nowhere in division 1 march madness. so why is there such a tissy over seedings? i will never understand that... Because you get paid per round. 1 win gets you double the dollars, so those 1 win wonders got the conference and themselves another check. So yes, 15 vs 16 matters considering the percentages are zero for 1 vs 16. Yes, I know about the 2018 upset. Its the only one in the history of the tournament. And yes, the teams that play in the first 4 get 2 checks if they win that round. 1 for playing in the first 4 and another for playing in round one.  make a tissy over 4 checks in 40 years? are you serious? monster, pub-leeeeze... |
|
