Measuring Coach Fobbs' Success

[Aggie77]

How are we gonna measure Coach Fobbs' success for the 2006 season, win & losses, against his peers, improvement week to week or some other metric?

First year coaches
Lee Fobbs Jr. NCA&T 3-8 (MEAC)
Pete Lembo – Elon 3-8 (Southern)
Rick Comegy – JSU 2-9 (SWAC)
Danny Rocco – Liberty 1-10 (Big South)
Tony Samuel - Southeast Missouri State 2-9 (Ohio Valley)
Norries Wilson – Columbia 2-9 (IVY)
Kevin Kelly – Georgetown 4-7 (Patriot League)

[Maxell]

Since there were at least three games last year that were lost because of purely bad coaching, success should be six(6) wins. But the QB is green, five(5) wins.

As in past years, the margin by which we beat WSSU(similar to the Central game) will set the pace for the rest of the season. If we beat them by 4 TDs, all bets are off and we might have a team. If we barely win by a FG, it's going to be a long season.

Projected wins:
WSSU
Howard
Morgan
Norfolk
Elon

I think the key is going to be the defensive line and the ILB. For the past three years folks have run up the middle on us at will (even the championship year). If we can stop the run inside, we have a shot. FAMU and BCC always are candidates to beat themselves in the past.

[Aggie One]

I would add DSU because without two refs obviously on the take on four major "mistakes" in eyesight, we probably win that game.

[aggiejazz]

I will call the WSSU game even since that will be A&T's first game.

I give NSU the advantage because the program is looking to improve from last year with a better QB and better talent at other positions, the coaching seems to be pretty good, it's their home game and the Aggies will be playing this game after taking a drumming in La.

I give Elon the advantage because right now they have the better coaching staff. This may change near the end of the season.

I only give A&T the edge in two games Howard and Morgan State with a good possibility against WSSU if the Aggies can score a couple of touchdowns.

[DOOMS]

I would measure Fobbs' success simply by improvement week to week. I'll take wins but I don't see too many on the schedule.

We're slow, small, and we're starting a lot of first-time players without game experience. We haven't stopped the run or the pass in a few years. Our offense has been below anemic and that was with juniors and seniors. You can't up and expect first year players to show up and beat five teams.

Winston's even. I've seen them play. They CANNOT pass the football. But they run at will. If we stack the line and actually stop them from running we win. If we stack the line and don't stop them from running we are in for a very long season.

Howard has dominated us lately. Even when we beat them in overtime they ran at will and stopped us from doing anything. I'll probably be sleeping at homecoming again this year.

Morgan. I saw Morgan's spring game. They're really bad, but they have some athletes. If we have athletes I've never really seen them on the field.

Norfolk will kill us. As will DSU, SCSU, Hampton, FAMU, Cookman, and that Cajun school.

Elon's a question mark. I'd rank it with the Winston game in that it will tell us a lot about this year's Aggies.

[Aggie77]

I don’t think our coach should be measured by wins and losses in his first campaign. If we are to build a successful program we need to put an organized, disciplined team on the field that improves each week, then the wins will take care of themselves. In order to accomplish those three things, Coach Fobbs (and staff) will have to evaluate talent, develop a game plan, successfully pass on that plan to the players, execute and adjust the plan as required. My measure of success is if it looks like this 8 of the 11 outings this fall then we were successful and on our way to building a program (and again the wins will take care of themselves).

[Maxell]

aggie77 said:

I don’t think our coach should be measured by wins and losses in his first campaign.

I don't buy that. Moral victories don't count. By the same token, winning despite your coaching ability (see Small's first year) can be tricky also. But....

Forgetting the sob stories, he has to win the games he's supposed to win. Period. Everything else is subjective. I've been there. Going from championship to chit is still chit. He's not starting from scratch. The biggest hit was to the OL and the front seven. Those OL all-staters from 2 years ago should be ready to go now. Hemphill and Shropshire got enough playing time at LB to be ready to go along with the new recruits. D-Line is a still question though.

Regardless:

He's supposed to beat WSSU (by a lot!).
He's supposed to beat Morgan.
He should beat Elon, Norfolk and Howard.

That's my $500 and I'm sticking to it.

[numberonebrave]

You need to look at the roster, some of the names you mentioned are not on the team. A&T lost 7 of its top 8 ol, the entire dl except for Mclean...I doubt if you have 5 starters returning this season. you are looking at 2-9 or worse. WSSU will run as previously mentioned at will...Norfolk will be the surprise team in the MEAC BEHIND DSU

[Maxell]

That's my $500 and I'm sticking to it.

[Aggie One]

It's amazing how outsiders know so much about nothin lookin at a 2-year old program. Maxwell, look my tailback post in the private forum.

[DECKS]

I agree that we can't measure him by wins & losses this season. I will be looking to see how competitive we are and how much we improve by seasons end.

[Maxell]

aggieone said:

It's amazing how outsiders know so much about nothin lookin at a 2-year old program. Maxwell, look my tailback post in the private forum.

[Aggie77]

aggie77 said:

How are we gonna measure Coach Fobbs' success for the 2006 season, win & losses, against his peers, improvement week to week or some other metric?

First year coaches
Lee Fobbs Jr. NCA&T 3-8 (MEAC)
Pete Lembo – Elon 3-8 (Southern)
Rick Comegy – JSU 2-9 (SWAC)
Danny Rocco – Liberty 1-10 (Big South)
Tony Samuel - Southeast Missouri State 2-9 (Ohio Valley)
Norries Wilson – Columbia 2-9 (IVY)
Kevin Kelly – Georgetown 4-7 (Patriot League)

Lee Fobbs Jr. NCA&T 0-11 (MEAC)
Pete Lembo – Elon 5-6 (Southern)
Rick Comegy – JSU 6-5 (SWAC)
Danny Rocco – Liberty 6-5 (Big South)
Tony Samuel - Southeast Missouri State 4-7 (Ohio Valley)
Norries Wilson – Columbia 5-5 (IVY)
Kevin Kelly – Georgetown 2-9 (Patriot League)

I think however we measure Coach Fobbs' success, I think we come up with a failing grade.

Week to Week: none except maybe week 10 to week 11
Wins and Loses: an 0-11 season is a complete failure.
Against Peers: other than us, only Georgetown had a worst record than the previous year.
Play Calling: an improvement over last year
Defense: worst
Special Teams: worst

This year I didn't think win/loses would be an indicator of the direction of our program. After seeing 9 of 11 games, I'm not sure considering the budget issues if there will be improvement in the foreseeable future. So because of the results of this year I again don't think win/loses is the defining measurement of a successful program for Coach Fobbs. However, next year he will need significant improvement in the following to convince many that he is the right man for the job.

Player Development: It is my opinion these are the players Coach Fobbs is going to have to win with. So this core group will have to mentally and physically improve between now and Labor Day 2007.

Recruiting: Coach Fobbs would like to build the program the “Freshman” way. Unfortunately, I don't think Coach Fobbs has that luxury anymore. I'm not advocating a wholesale influx of JUCO or D-1a players, but some deficiencies can't be filled with Freshmen. Revenue requirements will limit a long steady rebuilding of the program. People are not coming out to see a team get beat by 30 or 40 points for two more years. After all we can’t cut women sports, so does that mean less football scholarships?

Coaching: I don't know if this staff works well together or not, but the on field results appear to indicate no. I would expect changes here immediately.

[Freeze]

numberonebrave said:

You need to look at the roster, some of the names you mentioned are not on the team. A&T lost 7 of its top 8 ol, the entire dl except for Mclean...I doubt if you have 5 starters returning this season. you are looking at 2-9 or worse. WSSU will run as previously mentioned at will...Norfolk will be the surprise team in the MEAC BEHIND DSU

Looks like this "outsider" new a whole lot more than many of you wanted to realize.

[dj98]

We were small and slow but we can't measure Fobbs until a weight and running program is implimented. Slow and small will turn into fast and physical but undersized. If we can get Hicks back he can work with that. Even if we had a D coordinator, it would have been hard to work with what we had this year. Implimented the weight and running program and it would have been a different story. In the MEAC all you need is a good defense and a running game, The team would have been 8-4 or 7-5, A respectable record.